The answer to the question of whether the Washington Nationals should have committed $18 million a year for seven years to Jayson Werth must be answered on more than one level, and starts with the image of the franchise.

As per what we wrote here after Adam Dunn left, the Nationals are a franchise desperate for credibility.  With Dunn – their only previous significant free agent signing – gone to the White Sox, it is now clear that the Nationals had bigger fish to fry and were well aware that they had to make a splash in the free agent market to signify to the baseball world, and just as importantly to the fans, that they are real players.  And they certainly did that with the signing of Werth.

Did they overpay and overextend for a player who is 32,  has had just two significant seasons, has never driven in 100 runs, is a .272 career hitter, has averaged 150 strikeouts the last two seasons and rolled up good offensive numbers due in large part to being a complementary hitter in a powerful lineup at a hitters paradise in Philadelphia?

Of course they did.  But that does not necessarily mean this was a bad signing.

Fact is, teams that are downtrodden must overpay to reel in a player that sends an unambiguous signal to the rest of baseball.  Doing so likely means they will not have to overpay – at least not significantly – for the next star on whom they set their sights.

And much like when the down and out Mets overpaid and overextended to attract Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran a few years ago, the Nationals understand that having quality players in the fold is a necessary precondition to attracting other significant players.  This is similar to the challenge for fundraisers of securing the first big contribution to a new organization, the one they know will make subsequent appeals far easier.

The real danger is not that the Nationals will now have much less payroll flexibility.  They are loaded with young, promising and inexpensive talent – Stephen Strasburg (in 2012), Jordan Zimmerman, Drew Storen, Ian Desmond et al.  Rather, the danger lies in the expectations of Nationals fans.

Simply put, Jayson Werth is not a superstar.  He is not Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard or Adrian Gonzalez.  He is more along the lines of a Jason Bay or Bobby Abreu, a solid all-around player who provides a good arm and glove, some speed, and will likely serve as acceptable protection for Ryan Zimmerman in the middle of the Nats batting order.

But if Nats fans are expecting eye-popping, awe-inspiring performance, they are setting themselves up for a big letdown.  Indeed, the long-suffering fans of Washington baseball will need to keep in mind the larger significance of this signing, and resist the temptation to react to the limits of Werth’s skills with…$18 million a year for this?!?

The news that slugger Adam Dunn has signed a four year deal with the White Sox is bigger news in the town he left than in the one he’ll now call home.

After Dunn proved to be just the much-needed power bat the Washington Nationals were seeking when they signed him for the last two years, and with the likelihood that their failure to bring him back would further demoralize the team’s already depressed fan base, the Nats nevertheless failed to make an acceptable offer, even though by most accounts, Dunn enjoyed his time in Washington and was certainly open to re-upping with the Nats.

This is a franchise that is stationed in a football town and has failed to achieve a winning record in its six years in DC.  They lost more than 100 games two years ago, and over 90 last year.  Stephen Strasburg, who literally breathed life into the team when he burst on to the scene in spectacular fashion, went down with elbow surgery and is lost for at least the 2011 season.  And the fans, who were once willing to be patient based on the argument that the franchise was decimated when it arrived in town from Montreal, are unlikely to continue exercising such patience without a demonstration by the team that it is seriously committed to winning.

And it’s not just the fans .  The cornerstone of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman, made pointed remarks in the wake of Dunn’s departure.

“I’m very concerned — I think these are supposed to be the years we take a step forward and become more competitive,” Zimmerman told MLB.com. “We are supposed to be becoming a team that goes out and gets more free agents. To not be able to sign the best free agent that was on your team to begin with is tough.”

While the Nats have some promising young talent, particularly on their pitching staff, players and fans alike understand that you must supplement the uncertainty of that potential with proven major league talent.  The signing of Dunn was a signal that the Nats were beginning to do this.  Their failure to re-sign him now begs the question afresh.

The winter meetings are upon us, and it is vital for the Nationals to offer some hope to both their players and fans by making at least one or two signings or trades of consequence before the calendar turns to 2011.  Because everyone will know if they wait until January or beyond, the Nats will simply be looking in the bargain bin instead of the haute couture.  And that will provide all the evidence needed for those cynics who say the team’s ownership is simply unwilling to do what it takes to win.

The drama now playing out between the Yankees and the face of their franchise, Derek Jeter, is fascinating theatre in so many ways:

- it is one of the most high level games of chicken we are likely ever to witness, with no definitive indication at this time of which side will blink first;

- it is the embodiment of the entire question of whether a player’s salary should be based strictly on likely future performance, or to some degree as a reward for past accomplishments;

- it has the potential to make a certain hall of famer with an entirely untarnished personal reputation over 15 years look bad for the first time;

- with the Yanks having awarded A-Rod a new contract three years ago for an average of $27 million/year (not to mention Sabathia & Teixera in that same range), and the team likely to offer Cliff Lee something in that neighborhood any time now, is it fair to ask the heart and soul of the team to take a pay cut?

- this is ultimately a test of the Yankees brand, and to what degree their star shortstop is either central to it or a beneficiary of it.  How many less world series would the Yanks have won without Jeter? And perhaps more interestingly, how great would Jeter be considered if he played in, say, Milwaukee?

The Yanks made an initial offer to Jeter of 3 years/$45 million, well beyond his market value as a 37 year old with diminishing range at SS and coming off the worst offensive year of his career.  But still almost $4 million less than what he’s averaged for the last decade.

When Jeter’s agent told the New York media that the Yankee negotiating strategy was “puzzling,” the battle was essentially joined when Yanks GM Brian Cashman publicly stated that, if Jeter believes he can secure a better offer from another team (which of course he won’t – not even close), he should go ahead and test the market.  Hardball.

With various media reports – none of them seriously disputed – that his agent is asking for more than $20 million a year for five years – a ridiculous demand no matter how you cut it – St. Derek is now being viewed in many quarters as greedy (one recent poll showed that 75% of Yankee fans sided with the team in this dispute).

While there was a recent meeting between the two sides that has been described as cordial or even friendly, it still seems that Jeter is dead set against taking a cut from the $18.9 million average salary in his just-completed ten year contract.  And to some degree, you can’t blame him, since he has been at the heart of five world championships.

But in the end, the reality is that contracts in baseball, as in all other sports and businesses, are awarded on the basis of expected future performance, not the past.  And just because the Yanks overpaid for A-Rod, AJ Burnett and others, doesn’t require them to burst open their bank account for an aging star.

While there has been much talk that both sides need each other equally, I think the Yankees don’t buy it.  They believe that the value of their brand – the greatest of any sports franchise in the world – is not dependent on ANY single player.

Jeter might want to keep that in mind and take a closer look at the history of the Yankees, a franchise which pushed some of their greatest stars – Ruth, DiMaggio and Jackson among them – out the door when their usefulness diminished.

That’s not to say the two sides won’t work out a deal.  In the end, they probably will.  But that will be because the Yanks determine that they want him a lot more than they need him.

When the Mets named Sandy Alderson as their new GM,  job one for the highly respected former Oakland GM was to scrub clean and detoxify what has become a losing organization from top to bottom.

As I said on the show in the immediate aftermath of the Mets epic collapse of 2007, the franchise could be haunted for years by a meltdown of such historic magnitude.

And it has been.

2008 saw a mini-version of the previous year’s September collapse.  2009 was an injury-plagued disaster.  And 2010 was not much better.

Clearly, whoever would follow the feckless Jerry Manuel as Mets manager would have to be someone who could restore a sense of order, command and discipline.  He would have to send the unambiguous signal that mediocrity is no longer acceptable.  That players who are the collective recipients of the team’s $140 million payroll will no longer be allowed to accept and be comfortable with their underachievement.

Much like in politics, where every president is elected in large part as a reaction to the style and success (or lack thereof) of the previous occupant of the oval office, new managers are most often named as antidotes to the perceived character flaws of the previous manager.  Mets history is a testimony to this. For example, The laid back Jeff Torborg was followed by drill sergeant Dallas Green.  The intense Bobby Valentine was followed by the laid back Art Howe.

Perhaps the best example in recent years would be the calm Joe Torre following the Type A Buck Showalter as Yankee manager in 1996.

So Alderson has opted for the intensity and experience of Terry Collins, who has managed twice before in the majors with mixed results, and headed the Mets minor league operations last season.  His selection has hardly been a cause for celebration among Mets fans, a clear majority of whom wanted Wally Backman, he of the fiery personality and 1986 championship bloodlines.  This, despite the fact that Backman has never managed above the single-A level and has a personal history that would charitably be termed questionable.

So, Mets fans, driven in recent years by an unparalleled degree of cynicism – even for them – have sent the message that they love the hiring of Alderson but do not approve of Collins.  What these fans must accept is standard practice in large organizations: when you hire a CEO, you must give him the latitude to make what he believes are the best hires, and best decisions, and not try to second guess every move.

Not that Alderson will care one way or another.  He was brought in to do a rebuild the organization from the ground up, and will hardly be guided by the dozens of Mets-related bloggers and the team’s famously irritable fan base.

So if Mets fans really believe that Sandy Alderson is the right man to lead the team back to the promised land, they had best stop griping and defer to the wisdom and judgment they perceived in him and so universally praised just weeks ago.

Despite consistently having one of MLB’s lowest payrolls, the Florida Marlins have managed to stay competitive over the years by making shrewd baseball decisions and drafting well.

They may continue to draft well, but the two biggest decisions they have made over the last four months have been duds that could damage the franchise for years to come.

First, they fired a popular and successful manager, Fredi Gonzalez, in mid-season so they could quickly swipe up Bobby Valentine before other teams lined up at his door after the season.  Good idea, it seemed at the time, but when negotiations with Bobby V. blew up, the obvious question was: why didn’t you wait to fire Gonzalez until you had a deal in place with Valentine?  Because they didn’t, and Bobby V walked away, they were forced to name one of their coaches, Edwin Rodriguez, as first interim, then permanent manager, simultaneously freeing Gonzalez to walk right into the manager’s seat with the Braves, their divisional rival.

Then recently, the Marlins were faced with a critical decision on one of their marquis players, Dan Uggla, who has some of the best power credentials among 2B in major league history.  They were actually close to reaching an agreement for four years, but when Uggla asked for a fifth year in exchange for a lower annual salary – a reasonable demand, especially given Uggla’s value to the franchise for half a decade – the Marlins inexplicably walked away from the table and Uggla was done.  The Marlins were forced to deal him with one year left on his contract, again to the Braves, in exchange for journeyman reliever Mike Dunn and utilityman Omar Infante, a nice player who had a nice year, but hardly in Uggla’s class.  It is hard to believe that the Marlins let Uggla walk away when they had offered over $40 million for four years, thus admitting his value to the franchise.

As they prepare to move into their new ballpark in 2012 (finally!), the Marlins would have loved to have Uggla to pair with franchise player Hanley Ramirez, and a high profile, successful manager, as big attractions to sell season tickets.  But VP David Samson’s tactics backfired twice and the franchise has taken a major step backward.

The decision by ESPN not to renew agreements with Jon Miller and Joe Morgan as commentators on Sunday Night baseball brings us to the end of an era – an era comprised of two decades.

Miller is considered in most quarters to be the successor to Vin Scully as the voice of baseball.  His good humor, and refusal to take himself seriously, have always added a great degree of charm to his immense talent.

Morgan has been much maligned for his proud and stubborn refusal to embrace – or even acknowledge – the new measuring device of baseball, sabremetrics, preferring to rely on his gut and considerable experience on the field.

The two formed a Mutt & Jeff, Abbott & Costello-style team – one the straight man, the other the comedian.

Time marches on, and it was inevitable that these broadcasters would move on to make room for younger voices.  The broader theme at play here is that ratings – or more specifically, fear of reduced ratings – drove ESPN’s judgment that they could draw higher numbers  among that cherished 28-54 year old demographic group by selecting younger announcers.

It makes me wonder if decisions such as these should be made in such a linear fashion.  Will young people invariably respond better to younger broadcasters just because they are younger?  Perhaps, but that judgment leaves little room for nuance, or even formulations such as whether younger viewers – just like their older counterparts – might actually judge announcers more on their talent and personalities than on their age.

If Fox Sports’ selection of Chris Rose as their lead studio host for baseball is any indication of the success of such judgments, this is a question that should be re-considered.  Rose may be younger and hipper than his predecessors, but does he offer the kind of depth, insight and personality of his more experienced peers?

Just asking.

• At last: San Francisco celebrates its first world championship as the Giants vanquish the Rangers;
• Yogi Berra: The legendary Yankee and American icon joins us;
• Bob Nightengale: The longtime USA Today baseball writer helps us analyze the buzz of activity likely to occur this winter.

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I would rather be lucky than good.  That is a cliche for good reason.

We have all had times when our skill is good and our luck is bad, and vice-versa.  And we all know that luck plays a big role in baseball.

Take the San Francisco Giants, newly minted National League champions.  While they certainly earned the pennant with excellent pitching and timely hitting in their six game triumph over the Phillies, it’s not like they didn’t benefit from good fortune.

For example, what if the booming double by Ryan Howard in the 5th inning of game 6 had taken a normal bounce and scored Jimmy Rollins from 1B, instead of having the ball bounce directly to CF Andres Torres, forcing Rollins to hold at 3B.

What if the wicked line drive by Carlos Ruiz with two men on and one out in the 8th had been three feet to the right or left and scored one or two runs instead of going straight into the glove of 1B Aubrey Huff and turning into a DP to end the inning?

What if the home plate umpire had called that borderline pitch on Ryan Howard to end the game a ball instead of a strike, and the bases were loaded with Jayson Werth coming to the plate with the Phillies a bloop hit away from winning instead of losing?

And most of all, what if Juan Uribe’s game-winning homer in game 6, the shortest of the entire post-season, had hit the fence instead of dropping inches beyond it?

Point is, between these examples (among others) and the fact that every single win they have had in this post-season except one was by a single run, the Giants have had their share of good fortune.

Not so the Texas Rangers.  They thoroughly whipped the Yankees, outscoring them 31-6 – 31-6! – in the four games they won in the ALCS, and had built a big late inning lead in game 1 and accumulated 12 hits in game 5, the two games they lost.  They did not need any luck.

Simply put, while the Giants have been good and lucky, the Rangers have been dominant.

As I stated in my post before during the first round of playoffs, this Rangers team is better – perhaps much better – than most people think.  They have no discernible flaws, except possibly for the inexperience of their closer (though he had 40 saves and has pitched acceptably in October) and uncertainty about their bullpen depth (though the bullpen is balanced, experienced and has performed well all season, failing only in game 1 vs. the Yankees).

The Giants are full of holes.  Yes, Cody Ross was on a once-in-a-lifetime hot roll during the NLCS, and Pat Burrell provides a deep threat, and Juan Uribe had two enormous and timely hits against the Phillies, and Andres Torres has performed better than any of the six teams that released him thought he could.  In the end, though, there was a reason these players were on the scrap heap from which they were plucked.  That’s half of their starting lineup.

But, you might say, look at their pitching and how it shut down the Phillies.  Indeed it did, but again on the issue of luck, it was clear that the Phillies core, Howard (ankle), Rollins (hamstring) and Utley (thumb) wese all playing through lingering injuries.  Tim Lincecum’s back-to-back Cy Youngs prove his greatness, but he was only just good enough to win his first start against the Phillies, lost his second and was ineffective in his one relief outing.  And it seems clear the Giants will need a very big series from Lincecum, among other things, to overcome their deficiencies.

Finally, in addition to their superior overall skill, the Rangers have the ultimate October (uh, I mean October & November) weapon.  Cliff Lee.  If ever there was a lock, it is him.

So while both teams are underdogs and have written compelling stories to this point, we learn from Cinderella that the chariot eventually turns back into a pumpkin.

Rangers in 5.

• Dynasty or bust: The Phillies head home needing to win games 6 & 7 of the NLCS against the upstart Giants for a 3rd straight World Series appearance;
• Lone Star showdown: The defending champion Yankees head to Texas needing to beat the surprising Rangers in games 6 & 7 of the ALCS to reach the Fall Classic;
• Buddy Biancalana: 25 years later, we’ll revisit the classic World Series of 1985 between the Royals & Cardinals when we’re joined by KC’s starting shortstop.

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Sundays at 4 PM ET on WJFK 106.7 FM The FAN in DC, and across the Radio America network

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This Sunday, October 17 :

• NLCS: Phillies send their H20 trio against the Giants big three starters as they try for a third straight NL pennant; we’ll be joined by Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News;
• ALCS: The defending champion Yankees try to derail the Rangers bid for their first-ever World Series appearance;
• The Mick: We’ll discuss one of the greatest Yankees ever with Jane Leavy, acclaimed author of the new book The Last Boy: Mickey Mantle and the End of America’s Childhood .